Ten... Eleven... Twelvers

Syrian Rebels on the streets of Aleppo

As promised I plan to tackle the current civil war raging in Syria this week, something which promises to become ever more complicated.

In the spirit of it’s complicated nature I believe it is essential to provide a bit of context prior to launching into the current state of Syrian affairs.

Of particular interest when considering Syria is it's unique relationship with Iran, Lebanon and Hezbollah. Each of these political bodies factor heavily into, not just in the present conflict, but also in the nation’s history since Hafez al-Assad, took control of the government in 1970.

Hafez al-Assad circa 1993

It is often convenient to discuss political/international/cultural situations through the rose coloured glasses of generalization. It is often easier reference broad groupings of people than to delve into the intricate demographic make-up of a particular region or nation. Hence we have all come to comfortably use terms like Arab world, Muslim Bloc, or the West for that matter.

We use these terms because they keep things in neatly shelved boxes, conveniently compartmentalizing the players on the world stage. But as the conflict in Syria has revealed, that civil war and it's players are rarely neatly compartmental and almost never straight forward.

In the face of internal opposition al-Assad has employed a kind of scorched earth policy, doing his best to murderously stamp out any and all opposition, a move that has earned him few friends in the Arab world. In fact you may recall that the Arab League (a sort of U.N. body comprised of Arab Nations) has gone to great lengths to distance themselves from al-Assad’s Syria, eventually suspending Syria’s membership all together.

This move, aside from puzzling the casual western observer, has highlighted Syria’s role as an outlier within the Arab world, something not entirely owed to the civil war.

Last Friday I discussed in depth the Iranian Revolution which brought about a Shi’a theocracy in that nation. And it is here where a discussion of Iran’s unique relationship with Syria must begin.

Ayatollah Khomeini’s Islamic Republic of Iran exists as a proponent of the Twelver school of Shi’a Islam.

The names of all 12 Imameen
(decendents of Ali) written
in the form of the name Ali

Twelver or Imami Shi’a Islam is the largest branch of the Shi’a faith made distinct by it’s adherence to the notion that there are twelve divinely anointed Imam’s, the first of which was Mohammed's son-in-law Ali. Of the group, the twelfth or Mahdi, is thought to be in a sort of divine limbo until the end of days when he along with Isa (Jesus in Islam) will return to rid the world of evil prior to the apocalypse.

Sunni and Shi’a populations have been at each other’s throats throughout history, the most recent examples being the sectarian violence that erupted in the wake of operation Iraqi Freedom. Part of the strain between the two groups is specifically their differing beliefs pertaining to Mohammed's successors. In short, Sunni's do not subscribe to the notion of the 12 Imameen and rather support the sucession of Mohammed's father-in-law Abu Bakr as his sucessor.

So one has to beg the question… why would Iran be the largest single supporter of Syria, a nation which is ostensibly 74% Sunni?

For the answer we need only look to Hafez al-Assad. Father of everyone’s favourite ophthalmologist turned bloody tyrant Hafez seized control of Syria in 1970 which was a shock to the world, and those within Syria.

The al-Assad family belong to a minority and mystical group native to the rural boarder regions of Syria called the Alawi. Aside from being branded pagans and shaman by the Sunni majority in Syria Alawites belong to an offshoot of the Twelvers.

Bashir al-Assad
(aka Beaker from the Muppets)

Thus the ruling family of Syria since 1970 have been of the same religious persuasion of Iran’s Ayatollah’s. American Journalist Robert D. Kaplan was quite right when he likened Hafez’s assertion to the Syrian presidency to “an untouchable becoming maharajah in India”. In short no one would have ever assumed an Alawite would rule a predominantly Sunni country.

The general distaste for Alawi beliefs in the Sunni population didn’t win the al-Assad’s many friends in Syria, a problem compounded by their egregious human rights record and despotic actions.

This fact alone may go a long way to explain why Bashir al-Assad seems so dedicated to remaining in power, if toppled it is rather likely that Syrian Alawi would pay a heavy price at the hand’s of the Sunni rebels.

It takes very little imagination to begin to connect the dots from here. By 1979 the newly founded Islamic Republic in Iran was an ideal ally for the decade old Alawite dynasty in Syria. The Syrian’s would gain the support of the world’s single largest Islamic republic, and the Iranian’s would gain a valuable foothold in the Arab world.

As a brief aside, while I assume it is general knowledge, I should point out that while Iran is an Islamic nation (even prior to Khomeini’s Revolution) they are not Arabic. The Farsi speaking people of Iran have been and remain one of the world’s oldest and most distinct ethnic groups.

Hezbollah's flag

But where and how do Lebanon and Hezbollah factor into the discussion?

Syria has a long history of meddling in its south-western neighbour’s political affairs, especially since the al-Assad’s came to power and that is precisely due to the Shi’a population in Lebanon.

Around 59% of Lebanon’s population is Muslim, 27% being Sunni, 27% being Shi’a and 5% being Druze, a Twelver population spread throughout the southern reaches of Syria and Lebanon and Israel’s Golan heights.

Add to the slightly Shi’a heavy Lebanese population the presence of Hezbollah and one starts to see just how complicated the Twelver influence on the region is.

Emerging from the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon Hezbollah was formed as a Shi’a militant movement with the aim of protecting Shi’a interests within Lebanon. As noble as that sounds what Hezbollah really provided was a heavily anti-Zionist rhetoric complimented by a militant attitude.

Hassan Nasrallah: Hezbollah Secretary General

Not satisfied? Ok, here is another layer of complexity. When Hezbollah was in its infancy its leaders drew inspiration from Ayatollah Khomeini and were rewarded by the Iranian Supreme leader who sent a contingent of his notorious Revolutionary Guard to train Hezbollah’s militia.

Suddenly the embattled eye-doctor turned Dictator’s stubborn refusal to capitulate seems less insane than one may have thought, given his lack of popular support in the west, the U.N. or the Arab League.

Bashir al-Assad will likely fall, but it is unlikely his ultimate demise will be aided by NATO air support as was Gadhafi’s. The reason is simple and clear, any military action against Assad via the west is likely to draw Iran into the broader conflict (something everyone wants to avoid). Furthermore it would also certainly elicit a firey response from Hezbollah on Israel which is again something no one wishes to see, considering the last time Hezbollah gave it to the Israel back in 2006, a good portion of Lebanon’s urban centres were flattened by the IDF.